Sunday, October 15, 2017

Santa Rosa Fires

Why did so many people die? The government alerts were useless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/us/california-wildfires-victims.html

Questions have been raised about the effectiveness of emergency alert systems in telling people to evacuate. Sonoma, Napa and other counties have alert systems that send text messages to mobile phones, but those warnings generally go only to the people who have signed up to receive them, and the fires knocked out cellular service in many areas.
The more aggressive “Amber alert” system, with text messages and screeching alarms, can reach nearly every mobile phone in a region, but it was not activated on the night the fires broke out. Officials have said that they were concerned about setting off a panic and jamming roads.
The authorities described a chaotic scramble to evacuate residents from Santa Rosa amid thick smoke and flying embers.
“There wasn’t time to map out anything. There wasn’t time to make a plan,” said Sgt. Spencer Crum of the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office, one of a dozen officers on duty on Sunday night.
Sergeant Crum said he and his fellow officers drove up narrow driveways, blaring horns and sirens. He remembers repeatedly screaming, “Get out of here now!”
Some residents resisted. Some were in wheelchairs; he lifted them into his patrol car. “I said, ‘You are going to die if you stay here,’” Sergeant Crum recounted. “We did the best we could with the time we had.”
The sheer speed at which the fire spread and jumped that first night also made it impossible to keep track of what was burning.

People delayed evacuation or even stayed behind for really bizarre reasons. You have to be able to evacuate in minutes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/us/cailfornia-wildfires-survivors.html

Thursday, October 12, 2017

This Could Happen Anywhere


Food situation in Puerto Rico Right Now.

Spoiler: It's not good.

Supermarkets are empty. This is three weeks after the crisis.

https://twitter.com/paulatr3ides/status/917110324314234881

Check out the Costco line.

https://twitter.com/Moluskein/status/917426792931225601

There have been various incidents of price gouging.

https://twitter.com/ZugeyLamela/status/917805197983993858

Emergency food aid is insufficient,

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/917578712429875200

Lack of info is crippling relief efforts. There are tons of supplies, but no one knows where to take them. Volunteers are taking supplies where they are not needed. Some areas need foot and water, but other areas need tarps. Also, deliveries tend to include only short-term supplies (bottled water) and not long-term supplies (water filters). Radio announces serve as communication channels. It's insane.

https://www.facebook.com/JayFonsecaPR/videos/1937967709554017/

https://twitter.com/MariolaPR/status/917315751333236736

Local government officials are stealing or misdirecting supplies.

https://twitter.com/cate_long/status/917532521855930368

As are ordinary criminals.

http://www.noticel.com/ahora/acusado-por-robar-cuatro-generadores-de-electricidad/635538367?platform=hootsuite

Or just aggressive neighbors who take all the aid for themselves.

https://twitter.com/waltersotoleon/status/917847820383768576

Emergency rations, in any case, are woefully insufficient.

https://twitter.com/Soy_Sharky/status/917327805645578240

And distribution is hard.

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/917898898521448448

Luggage including supplies are subject to theft in the airport.

https://twitter.com/riverasaniel/status/917776908678520832

Roads to rural areas are wrecked.

https://twitter.com/Kianimarie03/status/917526476165132288

https://twitter.com/Residente/status/917738721759424516

Or blocked.

https://twitter.com/ValeriaCollazoC/status/915620084877529088

Even doctors can't get through.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/us/puerto-rico-doctors-storm.html

Rain continues to fall, making transport difficult.

https://twitter.com/Kianimarie03/status/917750382486573056

The government is using school cafeterias to feed people.

https://twitter.com/angelmatos/status/917539931261726720

Local governments are not clearing debris so urban areas that should be recovering are experiencing more flooding.

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/917735540547620864


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Puerto Rico Update

Well, the shit hit the fan in Puerto Rico. BIG TIME.

This disaster has been decades in the making. My partner and I moved out fifteen years ago and we return every Christmas. Every year the infrastructure (public and private) is a little bit worse, the services are a little bit more expensive, people have less money so they invest less, and the infrastructure gets even worse. Wash, rinse and repeat.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/expert-view/american-tragedy-puerto-rico

It finally came to a head with hurricane Maria. The whole island was laid to waste. The electric grid is gone. Houses were leveled. Roads were destroyed. Cell towers collapsed.

The communications breakdown was the worst part. Aid couldn't get through. People panicked. There was no way to get information.

It will be six months, at least, before electricity comes back. No one knows how long it will be before communications are restored. Three weeks after the hurricane, it's still chaos. There's more water coming down and more floods. Illnesses from contaminated water are starting to spread. Jobs are disappearing. It's going to be a very looooooooong emergency.

I think the number one lesson to be learned here is: get the heck out of dodge. We left the island when we saw the first signs of collapse and have never regretted. That's my first takeaway: it's not going to get better and it will get a lot worse so get out ASAP.

But some people may not be able to leave. The US state we currently live in is Puerto Rico 2.0. I can easily see this basket case state facing the same kind of catastrophic situation in a decade or so.  Decades of mismanagement will take their toll. Because of work and school, we may be stuck here for a while

So here are my PR takeaways (keeping in mind that the first one is GET OUT!) if you're stuck in a place that goes to hell in a handbasket:

1) Water, water, water. Collecting and storing potable water is vital. Filters are nice, but one of the main problems in PR right now is lestospirosis, which is not something you can filter out unless you have a UV filter. That's very scary.

https://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/leptospirosis-youan-outline-facts/

So I'm learning about boiling water and chlorinating. Fun! https://www.epa.gov/ground-water-and-drinking-water/emergency-disinfection-drinking-water

2) Cash is king. Puerto Rico had no cash for days. People needed water, food, and fuel and all had to be paid for in cash. Keep a lot of cash around. Savings are vital as economic activity grinds to a halt.

2) Communications is key. Cell towers collapsed almost instantly and to this day the island still has little cell connectivity/ When push comes to shove, there's nothing like AM/FM radio. The Zello app also seems to be useful. I have to download that and learn how it works.

We have an earlier version of this guy.

https://www.amazon.com/Eton-FRX5-Purpose-Weather-Bluetooth/dp/B01K6OCSI6/

But I'm thinking of getting a small one for backup.

https://www.amazon.com/Panasonic-RF-P50-Pocket-Discontinued-Manufacturer/dp/B00004T1XE/

Having a way to use phones without cell service is also good. I'm looking into these messaging gadgets to see fi they work.

https://www.amazon.com/goTenna-text-phone-service-required/dp/B016Z0H0IS/

3) Electricity may be scarce or nonexistent. Generators are good to have, but not everyone can get one in time. I'm amazed at how few people realize they have a portable generator sitting right there in their driveway. Having a device that will let you charge phones an other small electronics with your car is vital. Keep in mind that fuel will be in short supply if everyone (including hospitals and shelters) is using a generator. Right now, generators are useless in PR as there is a critical diesel shortage. My main takeaway is: learn to maximize your car, as gasoline is now relatively easy to get (although it wasn't at first).

https://www.amazon.com/BESTEK-Power-Inverter-Adapter-Charging/dp/B00UFERZKO/

4) No electricity means no fresh foods anywhere.  If the supply chain breaks down completely, you may not get food for days. Conventional wisdom was that you had to have food for a three-day emergency. I upped that to seven days when a snowstorm in Virginia left us stranded for a week, but Puerto Rico is something else. You have people there who were isolated for three weeks or more!

They've already had deaths due to food poisoning. Even if restaurants and supermarkets are open, the food may be spoiled and you may be better off making your own.That means you need nonperishables that your family will actually consume--cereals your kids like and canned goods they will eat. Pasta, powdered mashed potatoes, mac and cheese, and rice are good, as are canned stew, spaghetti sauce and chili. Think of what you'll actually use the food for. Don't assume your kids will eat that awesome tuna concoction you found on that pepper website. They probably won't. And for the love of mercy get some canned fruit.

I'm going to have to start thinking of what we would actually do with all the cans in the pantry so I have these books on my shopping list now:

https://www.amazon.com/Can-Opener-Gourmet-Delicious-Ingredients-ebook/dp/B015YVWIKE/

https://www.amazon.com/Preppers-Cookbook-Emergency-Nutritious-Life-Saving/dp/1612431291/

An ice cooler will come in handy for drinks and perishables like milk and cheese, at least for a couple of days. Ice distribution is actually working right now in PR, so maybe even longer than that. Making block ice before the crisis is a good idea as is having a reliable cooler. Right now, I'm wondering if the Yeti is worth the money.

It's worth noting that FEMA emergency meals have turned out to be total crap. They give you a bottle of water, a candy bar and a packet of applesauce to last you a whole day. You have to prepare. There is no safety net.

5) Food is only part of the equation. You need to be able to wash and dry clothes without electricity. Think old-fashioned washtubs and washboards. You need to be able to clean, including mud and debris. Think wet vacuums and industrial brooms and brushes and lots and lots of trash bags. You may need to shovel out mud or saw through tree branches. You need to wash the food cans before you open them because of the leptospirosis (rats pee on the cans and Puerto Rico already had one death because of this). Everything you buy or obtain after the crisis is potentially contaminated so act accordingly.

Also keep in mind that critters crawl out of the woodwork during a natural disaster. Texas had fire ants and snakes. Puerto Rico had bats and lizards and mosquitos. You're going to have to clean and dispose of these guys too. Stagnant water will be everywhere and that will mean even more creepy crawlies. Yes, the fun never ends.

6) You need to think hard about personal upkeep items and keep in mind your climate. If you're in the tropics, you'll need bug spray. If it's winter, you'll need chap stick. Diarrhea medicine is now in short supply in Puerto Rico. Pet food will be hard to find, not to mention baby supplies and feminine hygiene products. Remember the kitty litter!!!! Everything will be humid which means mold. Debris will be everywhere, which means allergens. Allergy medicine will suddenly become very important. Baby wipes are life-savers when water is scarce and don't forget the toilet paper.

http://thesurvivalmom.com/10-essential-otc-medications-emergency-kit/

The diseases that are spreading right now are conjunctivitis, lice, scabies and conjunctivitis. Bring on the hand sanitizer and iodine!

7) You also need to assess your vulnerabilities. Where will water come in? Where will it settle? Do I have to move valuables or furniture? Where are the safest spots? Do I have a safe place to sleep? Should I just secure this place and move in with family/friends until the crisis passes?

7) People are people. Generators get stolen. Aid gets stolen. Cars are broken into. Everyone will be carrying cash, so robberies suddenly become quite popular. With no communication, victims can't call the police (who are likely dealing with other stuff anyway), so burglaries and looting are endemic. Your house or shelter should be as safe as you can possibly make it. You should go outside as little as possible, but people get bored.

8) Transportation is iffy. Some roads will remain blocked for days. In San Juan, debris was not collected for weeks and a follow-up storm quickly flooded the street destroying cars (and spreading the garbage around, which is even worse). In addition, it kept on raining and bridges and roads are now sinking into the saturated dirt. A 4x4 risky, but the added mobility and safety have to be weighed against the cost and scarcity of fuel. It's a tricky question. Also, you should have road maps handy. Add that to the shopping list.

9) Entertainment is also a consideration. People get bored, anxious, and depressed with nothing to do.  You should have multiple radios with headphones. Portable DVD and CD players are also good, as are books or impromptu scrapbooking or journaling projects. Work and school may be suspended for a long time and people need something to occupy the time. Downloading games and movies/shows onto a computer tablet before the crisis will pay off in spades. This is one instance when a Candy Crush addiction will actually come in handy. Having a way to power a television and a gaming console will also help keep you sane.

Here's a good sanity list:

http://thesurvivalmom.com/10-non-edibles-for-your-emergency-stash/

Here's a good last-minute prep list.

http://thesurvivalmom.com/50-last-minute-ways-prepare-emergency/

Lots of food for thought.






Communications

One of the major problems in Puerto Rico is that the hurricane destroyed all the cell phone towers. There are still places that have no cell phone service and many areas with only intermittent service. Google has deployed experimental balloons to try to restore service, but that hasn't really had an effect yet.

I considered buying two way walking talkies for this type of situation, but, apparently, there are apps that can also work. WhatsApp seems to have held through, and Zello seems to be quite useful. Rescue groups (like the Cajun Navy!) use Zello to communicate, so you're in good company.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/08/31/the-cajun-navys-secret-weapon-for-saving-lives-the-human-voice/?utm_term=.48bb39ab4ef0

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2017/08/31/zello-app-helping-harvey-rescue-efforts/619924001/

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/listening-to-houstons-desperate-cries-for-help-after-harvey

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/28/technology/volunteers-harvey-rescue-apps/index.html

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-updates-hurricane-irma-preparing-for-irma-there-s-an-app-for-1505010762-htmlstory.html

http://www.chron.com/local/gray-matters/article/I-downloaded-an-app-And-suddenly-I-was-talking-12172506.php

So I'm going to look into those, particularly the Zello app.

Mom with a prep also recommends that you record a voicemail to let loved ones know how you are and what do you need. This is the kind of easy tip that you may not think of in the heat of the moment.

https://momwithaprep.com/preparedness-quick-tip-53-leave-voicemail/

Monday, October 9, 2017

Links

The Cologne sexual assaults weren't even crimes. This is my favorite line from the article.
 The connection between Cologne and Cairo was so obvious to Lucas that she saw an element of racism in overlooking it. “It seems Europe cannot learn anything from us and that nothing that happens or happened in our countries can be of any relevance to what goes on in Europe,” Lucas wrote.
"It can't happen here" is a very strong illusion.

Top nine animals to raise in a post-apocalypse world. I'd go with a chicken/goat/rabbit combo. These animals can be fed wild grass or scraps (You don't want to have to share the human food supply. Goats and chickens also double as trash disposal) and are also small and fairly easy to lock up. Theft, is one issue that these websites seldom address. As Puerto Rico's economic situation worsens, livestock theft has become endemic, and the island is nowhere near apocalypse levels. That's why I like the secret survival garden concept. I should watch the show. In the end it will probably come down to the three sisters garden, though. Here's more three sisters tips.

Then again, the situation in my Apocalypse Cupcakes series (yes, I'm still brainstorming names) is more similar to Venezuela or Egypt than to the standard TSHTF environment. The government is slowly crumbling down. There's still some infrastructure (food distribution, health, education), but it sucks and is strictly rationed. Venezuela, for example, is encouraging urban gardens. Cuba is another thing all together because you don't own the produce or livestock you grow so you can go to jail for consuming it. Anywho, the point is that I'm expecting a slow but steady deterioration and not a quick collapse so I'm focused on supplemental food growing and maximizing resources, and not so interested in learning how to feed a family of five from backyard produce.

Interesting bugout bag discussion on reddit/bugout. My favorite part is the side discussion on whether you need to pack soap or not. Dude, pack the soap.

Looking tough or blending in, that is the question. I love the term "tacticool." It's my new favorite word.

People who have actually had to bug out. Mostly links to stories, but interesting.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Links

The 1% haven't recovered either. All income levels are still under their 2007 peak. I wondered when people would start wondering about this. There's been a lot of "1% gets all the gains" thinkpieces, but no one had ever mentioned this.

"...people are being treated closer to the way that they are supposed to be treated."

The ACA was supposed to lower healthcare costs. They've actually increased. This is deeply disturbing because the "cost-saving" mechanisms weren't a fig leaf. The "experts" really thought they would work. The fact that they haven't is (or should be) very disturbing. It probably has to do with our highly-paid healthcare professionals.

Wage garnishment for unpaid student loans is a thing.

Blue model (govt-subsidized prosperity) is failing everywhere.

America needs more favelas. The past few months have seen a rise in articles exalting the virtues of downward mobility. This is one them. You're not too poor to move out of your parents' house; you're just enjoying the new trend of multi-generational living. You're not unemployed; you're an entrepreneur. You are not poor; you have been liberated from the burden of material possessions. My favorite part of this article is the last sentence indicating that this will boost middle class families. Living with your parents and grandparents in the same house while working low-paid menial jobs and helping your mom with the hairstyling business she runs out of the garage is what passes for middle class in Latin America. The fact that this is what the intelligentsia thinks that the downwardly-mobile American middle class should aspire to is depressing. People will adapt though, for example here's a millennial turning lemons into lemonade.

The robots are coming.

So is the Zika virus.

Paul Krugman goes to 11 on debt/deficits. This is going to be the theme for the next decade. We're going to spend like drunkards. China's on its fifth or so spending binge. Thanks to the ton of refugees/migrants it has to digest, Europe is going full in. Canada is already on it (I love that headline!). Japan will probably hold back and try to feed off the Western spending. The world has been awash with fake money for the past 10 years and the governments will now match that amount with real moolah. It won't work and the debt hangover won't be pretty (see Puerto Rico, 2016 bankruptcy of). It should, however, raise inflation by at least a bit resulting in a higher cost of living, Woohoo! Break out the party hats.